post from Mccall http://mccallsnotes.spaces.live.com/

I want to be a Founder of YouTube.

 

I know it is too late, but I just read Harold’s post on this.  Wow.

 

But I am a Founding Member in AGLOCO and so can you be one. I assume most (but not all) people who get to this blog have already joined AGLOCO (if not - do it now  - takes less than two minutes – then come back and finish this).

 

Being a member of AGLOCO is a good start, but to be a true Founder, you have to ‘stick your neck out’. (It is like registering to vote – it is a start, but to really influence the world you have to not only vote, but talk to people about the issues you really care about.)

 

AGLOCO is the same way. To really be a Founding Member, you have to talk to your friends about AGLOCO. And not just about joining. But about them really becoming Founding Members as well and ‘sticking their necks out’. It is the only way AGLOCO will grow effectively – by organic growth – member to new member.

 

People often ask how I got so many referrals. Well I only found 100. That 100 found the other 16,000. The AGLOCO system works. But you have to make it work. (oh some day it will be easy to recruit for AGLOCO, but that day is not here yet and in my opinion it will not be easy until sometime in 2008.)

 

You want a clear message on how to get to 16,000 in the next 90 days?  

 

This week get 10 friends (I know that you have more than ten people you know that the AGLOCO Revolution is right for). AND most importantly convince them to each get 10 referrals the next week (and check in with them to ‘help’ them get their ten - and it will quickly multipy). Tell them they are causing the revolution. Yes, you and they could end up making lots of money too. But for me, I did not join AGLOCO for the money and I do not write this blog for it either.

 

Harold says I will make more than $1 million from AGLOCO – I will be excited with a great dinner out with my wife. I believe the AGLOCO revolution is the right thing to happen to the Internet. Looking at all the YouTube money just convinced me more.

 

So, I agree with Harold that AGLOCO is an Internet Revolution. But it NEEDS YOU to be the revolutionary. 

This is from Harolds blog http://haroldbbbg1619.wordpress.com/

 

It is probably obvious that AGLOCO is the total focus of this blog. But with YouTube giving out shareholder details, I thought it might be fun to compare it to what AGLOCO would do with $1.7 billion dollars.

 

Let’s look at YouTube first.

 

• Founders

o Chad Hurley -$326 million o Chad Hurley Children – $19 million

o Steven Chen - $326 million (He seems to have shared with family – David Chen $9.7 million, Richard Chen $9.6 million and Sharon Chen $9.6 million

o Jawed Karim - $64.6 million (quit YouTube early and went to Stanford to get his PhD.)

 

Total Founders $765 million

 

• YouTube employees (from the list) – max time on job 18 months –

 

o Shannon Hermes - $1.3 million (receptionist/office manager)

o Julie Supan - $4.9 (chief press spokeswoman)

o Heather Gillette - $4 million (Director of customer support)

o Bradley Heilburn - $6.1 million (‘systems’)

o Christina Brodbeck - $8.6 million (senior user interface designer)

  Micah Shebar - $1.6 million (community advocate)

o Colin Corbett - $6.5 million (Director for Networking)

o Yu Pan - $35.5 million (Senior Software Engineer)

o Michael Abe Solomon - $19.3 million (Principal Architect)

o Cuong Do - $17.7 (Engineering Manager)

o Kevin Donohue - $12.1 million (Vice President of Content)

o Dwipal Akhilesh Desai - $6.1 (Senior Engineer)

o Mayrose Dunton - $4 million (Director of Product Development)

o Erik Klein - $3.6 million (Senior Software Engineer)

o Matthew Noel Rizzo - $3.6 million (software Engineer)

o Hong J. Qu - $2.8 million ( User Interface Designer) o

Christopher Maxcy - $2.6 million (Vice President of Business Development)

o Jacob Mark McGuire - $1.6 million (Software Engineer)

 Others ?

 

Total Employees $142 million +

 

• Investors (and others)

 

o Sequoia – over $504 million – (Invested $13 million for 8 months – wish my bank paid those rates.)

o Artis (Investments) - $75 million

o Others ?

 

Total Investors $579 million +

 

• The users/members of YouTube

 

As a group, they got - $0

 

Total users/members of YouTube $0.00

 

Sources:

 TommowYesterday

 Paulk.dabbledb.com

 SEC

 

Let’s look at AGLOCO - (a hypothetical sale at $1.7billion – please note the part above is real – the people named received Google stock with approximately that value according to the SEC. The part below is hypothetical. Used to illustrate the major economic difference )

 

To do this we need to make some important assumptions. Timing – say 2 years ; # of members – say 5,000,000 active members. Also to make a comparison closer, I assumed that the $1.7billion bought out both AGLOCO and the management company (which gets 10% of the gross AGLOCO revenue).

 

Founders, employees and investors as a group are all part of the management company – I put 10% of the $1.7 billion to buy this ($170 million).

• Founders – there are 14 founders listed on the AGLOCO website – if they get the same 45% as YouTube’s founders got it would be $76 million – split 14 ways would be an average of $5.5 million each – (not in the same league as Chen and Hurley’s $326 million each, but still a lot of money.)

• Employees – if it is the same 9% as YouTube it would be $15 million for all of the employees.

• Investors would get the rest - $79 million These seem to be all great rewards for these people. (But not headline making ones.)

 

• AGLOCO members - $1,530 million (given the referral system about ½ of this would go to the members who built the network – their referral network and ½ would go to all members based on their personal accumulated viewbar hours. )

 

o All regular members -$765 million divided by 5,000,000 members (and based on their viewbar hours) – an average of $153.

 A member who joins and uses the Viewbar starting in April 2007 - $306

 A member who joins and uses the Viewbar starting in March 2009 - $13

 

o Members with referrals (average referral would be worth $30.50 - $153 divided by 5 levels)

 Referrals who start using the Viewbar in April 2007 are worth about $61 each (if they start in March 2009 - $2.50)

 

• Lets make some wild guesses with this valuation and use some Top Gun names to make this blog more fun to read. (To make it simple I started with the February 16 Top Gun Numbers.) T

his calculation is full of assumptions – I will use John Chow as my example of how imprecise this is. He currently has 5.072 referrals (per Top Gun). He has a stated goal of 30,000, by the end of 2007 – he is a smart person and usually hits his targets. And let’s further assume he does not quit there and grows to 60,000 by the end of March 2009. Now the 5,072 are the most valuable kind of referrals ($61) as they will start with the Viewbar early (Value to John $309,392). The next 55,000 we’ll assume are gained equally over time and with a $30.50 rate) – Value to John $1,677,500). Total is $1,986,892. But all referrals will not download the Viewbar, so let’s cut this number by 50% to $993,446.

 

Using similar math, here are a couple of AGLOCO Top Guns

 

• Mr. X - $4 million

• David Lawrence - $3.5 million

• RZ McCall - $3.2 million

• John Chow - $1 million

• Yogesh Subhanand - $ 0.7 million

• Geoff Shenk - $0.6 million

• Valerie Underhill - $0.4 million

 

Let’s hope these people are not out spending this money just yet. The odds of things happening this way are near 0%, but the general sharing relationships are instructive.

 

The AGLOCO members will get the lion’s share of the value (the group starting and financing AGLOCO will get a smaller, but fair return on their risk). Individual members who join AGLOCO, but choose not to participate in actively building it will get half of the money. And the small group of AGLOCO members who help build the network will also receive a significant portion of the value created.

 

Hope you had some fun reading this. The YouTube amounts were fascinating to me. And, of course, being able to demonstrate so graphically what an economic revolution AGLOCO could provide was equally fun for me.

February 21st, 2007 by haroldbbbg1619  http://haroldbbbg1619.wordpress.com/

 

 I have read that question more than once on comments around the Internet.

 

Seems we have some Capitalists among the Revolutionaries. Well it is an Economic Revolution, so I think the Capitalists are in the right place, at the right time and are asking the right questions.

 

With ALGOCO there are two distinct different forms of payment for two distinct forms of member effort.

The two efforts are:

 

1. Being an AGLOCO member – using the Viewbar and generally being a worthwhile Internet economic ‘person’. (Looking at ads, downloading software and buying things online.)

2. Being a builder of the AGLOCO network (this means referring new members to the system.)

 

The two payment types are:

 

1. Cash – monthly (PayPal, checks, e-gold, direct bank deposits, Amazon dollars etc. – member picks his favorite least cost payment type)

2. AGLOCO Ownership – accumulated hours earned over time – earned directly and with referrals.

Here is how I analyze these things

 

Cash – (below are my opinions)

 

• I believe this will be very small amounts during 2007 slowly growing over time.
• I think that the ‘affiliate’ revenue sharing for people who do shop online will be the biggest source of cash to those people.
• AGLOCO must pay its operating cost (as small as they probably are) before having money to pay members
• Over time this should grow to more than $10 a month for the average member.
• Builders will just get more of this.

 

Member ownership

 

• This all members should be accumulating starting with the first hour of viewbar usage.
• Valuation of this I have blogged about with my six part Simmons Report series. – (but using the Simmons Report $150 over a two/three year period is a value that should be reasonable.)
• How to sell these hours before AGLOCO is a public entity is a worthwhile question. My guess is that some enterprising member will set up a marketplace to buy and sell hours (like they buy and sell airline miles – big business in that I searched on Google and got 94,000 pages about it. This market would provide the cash some people would prefer today and a huge potential upside for those members who think AGLOCO will be a breakout winner.
• AGLOCO’s website says they will use part of their profits to buy ownership from members.
• Builders will just get more of this (much more) – The Simmons Report uses an average value of $30 for each referral – of course this will be more for early referrals and will only have any value of the Viewbar is used by the referrals.

 

The question of who would buy ownership of AGLOCO is a very simple question.

 

The answer is anyone who buys stock in any profit making corporation.

 

The Simmons Report does a nice job of outlining AGLOCO as a profit making corporation. If it paid out all its ash to members, then the it would be more like a club than a company. By making and retaining profits, AGLOCO can become an attractive Internet growth stock. Google sells for almost 50 times its annual earnings (and anyone who bought the stock when it went public has made 5 times their money so far. Yahoo sells for 60 times their annual earnings. This is because people believe it will make even more money in the future.

In order for AGLOCO to achieve the high 20 to 60 times earnings valuation, in my opinion, at some point it will have to stop (or severely slow down) the giving of new ownership to all its members. Maybe only give away annually not more than 5% - 10% of the company (which is called dilution in the stock market world).

 

My personal choice of who would buy AGLOCO has already been stated – Microsoft. They desperately need a way to catch up to Yahoo and Google on the Internet. AGLOCO might represent just the way to do it. Go Bill Go.